NFL Draft Quarterbacks Projections

In this Article I will be talking about where I see the Top Quarterbacks will most likely headed to on draft day.

Blaine Gabbert
Likely Pick: 1.04 – Bengals

The Bengals are between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, they need to use the pick in another position but with Carson Palmer threatening (and sounding awfully serious about it) to never set foot in their stadium again, their hand is being forced. The choice comes down to Gabbert and Newton and while Newton is a better prospect for starting day one, Gabbert has more long term potential and fits the offensive mold of the Bengals rather well. That all said, the Bengals have always taken players of questionable character and I believe they turned the page on that chapter and going to grab Gabbert not Newton.

The Cardinals need QB help as well but are intrigued by what Skelton offers longer term. Skelton should not be the opening day QB and Arizona is likely to look at established veterans like Kolb to take the role for at least part of 2011. Carolina doesn’t know enough about Clausen yet in my mind to make a Gabbert or Newton their #1 choice. Defensive minded head coach Ron Rivera will likely be looking to replace the departed (2010) impact of Julius Peppers on the DL.

Next Likely: 1.05 – Cardinals
No Later: 1.10 – Redskins
Surprise: 1.01 – Panthers

Cam Newton
Likely Pick: 1.07 – 49′ers

There is no hotter draft discussion topic than the prospects for Auburn’s Cam Newton. On one hand, you have a one-year phenom who completed more than 66% of his passes in a down-field passing offense while showing notable mobility, arm strength and leadership. On the other, you have an athlete whose on-field abilities are eclipsed only by his own ego and opinion of himself. The mixture is very risky to take a guy like Cam so early in the draft.

Newton’s skills project as a day-one starter as well as any drafted QB in the recent past. In 2011, numerous teams have an immediate starting need. You want your quarterback to have leadership ability, confidence and even a swagger, but there’s a fine line between confidence and entitlement.

My view on Newton is that he’s worth the risk for a team that has an immediate starting QB need. Accuracy is the most importance on my list of abilities and Newton has a decent amount of it. His mechanics are relatively sound and as a mobile QB, I like that while scrambling in the backfield, his eyes are down the field. He has great moves and a solid base providing for great balance and power. If his head is on straight, he’s a clear #1 choice without question. That not being the case, it’s a question of maturity and ego vs. confidence. I take that risk, but not in the top 4 or 5 picks in the draft.

I very much like the fit for new coach Harbaugh in San Francisco and fully believe that if Newton is on the board at 1.07, his name will be called. Carolina might still take the risk in Newton at first overall but the jury in Carolina is still riding the horse of the strong-armed and similarly cocky Jimmy Clausen. With new coach Ron Rivera in town, I believe Clausen will be given another year of development. Cincinnati remains a possibility but the team needs a face for the franchise after Palmer and can’t afford a big ego. Arizona remains a slight possibility but I don’t see a character fit. Daniel Snyder would be all over Newton at 1.10.

Next Likely: 1.10 – Redskins
No Later: 1.10 – Redskins
Surprise: 1.01 – Panthers

Jake Locker
Likely Pick: 1.25 – Seahawks

I don’t like the pick, nor do I like Locker in the first round. But until Coach Carroll calls me for my opinion, I have to believe that he’ll be going to Seattle. There are just too many connections here and Locker does contain good skills including arm strength, mobility and character. What he doesn’t have is tremendous size or accuracy. Lacking accuracy, the decision to draft Locker comes down to the ego of the head coach as to whether he believes that his staff can develop that which has not yet been displayed.

Hasselbeck is certain to be in his last year as a Seahawk and the expensive gamble on Charlie Whitehurst did not pay off. Seattle must bring in a QB this year and their late selection likely means they need to do it in the first round. I like Kaepernick better than Locker, but not at this pick.

Many experts believe that Locker will be off the board by Seattle’s pick.

Next Likely: 2.02 – Bills
No Later: 2.09 – Redskins
Surprise: 1.10 – Redskins

Colin Kaepernick
Likely Pick: 2.02 – Bills

Kaepernick raised his stock at the combine by doing well in all drills. A well built, tall and strong armed passer, Buffalo will be hard pressed to let Kaepernick slide unless they jumped at the chance to draft Gabbert or Newton at 1.03. Kaepernick likely has one of the top two arms of the QB class and displayed better than expected speed with a 4.53 40-yard dash. Always one to like mobility, Bills head coach Chan Gailey will like what Kaepernick offers across the board and at a reasonable value in the 2nd round.

QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick was a pleasant surprise in 2010 but that won’t stop Buffalo looking for a young passer with upside. Kaepernick fits the bills

Next Likely: 2.06 – Cardinals
No Later: 2.25 – Seahawks
Surprise: 3rd Round

Ryan Mallett
Likely Pick: 2.09 – Redskins

Shanahan has always loved a project and a project with a rocket arm and pocket presence. Shanahan doesn’t shy away from character concerns and has an ego to match Mallett’s arm. The Skins are in need of a face of the franchise and departing QB Donovan McNabb leaves a huge hole to fill. With the two big names likely off the board by their first round selection, I dont believe that Locker will still be on the board this late in the draft.

There is no questioning Mallett’s on-field production or ability. But significant questions remain about his maturity, off the field issues and decision making. As Rich Eisen said on the Dan Patrick show, Mallett “…has more red flags than a carnival”. Shanahan’s success with quarterbacks is unquestioned and the match is an intriguing one. I’m looking for Mallett to be the starter in Washington early in 2011.

Next Likely: 2.07 – Titans
No Later: 2.25 – Seahawks
Surprise: 2.02 – Bills

Christian Ponder
Likely Pick: 3.05 – Cardinals

Ponder isn’t in my top five, but that doesn’t mean that the needs of teams early in the second round could necessitate an earlier selection than he would otherwise be. I still believe that Ponder is a 3rd round passer and that Arizona will be rewarded by not over-drafting other names in the first or second rounds. I’m still fully expecting Arizona to bring in a veteran passer either through free agency or via trade, but should that not happen, Ponder is a legitimate up-side quarterback in the third round.

I’m also not buying much of the information coming out that Ponder is greatly on the rise on draft boards. He’s a good kid with a very nice short to intermediate range game, but doesn’t have a big arm and doesn’t leap off the page. But he has the character, work ethic and mechanics to be selected relatively highly. He’d be a good fit with Whisenhut in Arizona

Next Likely: 3.12 – 49′ers
No Later: 3.15 – Dolphins
Surprise: 2.06 – Cardinals

Thanks for reading be sure to catch my next article of the NFL Draft Running back Projections.

-Fantasy Guru